I learned this week that Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) was the first person we know of to have recorded using a cost-benefit analysis. His subject matter was not economics as one may guess, but rather it was God. He wrote in a dialogue format in which he was debating with a supposed opponent. Pascal argued that the cost, or risk, associated with believing in God was incredibly small compared to the infinite reward if you turned out to be correct. I'll summarize his and his opponents' positions below. My summary is a bit tailored to our modern world, but here goes...
He likened it to gambling. If you were offered the opportunity to gamble in a game where the outcomes were so favorable compared to the risk, would you play? If I toss a fair coin and it comes up heads I will give you a million dollars; but if it comes up tails you give me one dollar--would you play? (Hint: you'd be a fool not to.)
Pascal argued that to believe in God carried such minimal risk (you'd miss out in drunkenness and a bunch of other vices that would ruin your life, for example) and enormous (eternal) reward that you'd be a fool not to take it. Similarly, if you believe in God and end up ring wrong then you have lost nothing much. The cost-benefit analysis is heavily favoring believing in God.
Pascal's opponent replied that Pascal was correct. The rational and reasonable thing to do was to take up the "bet" and believe in God. However, the opponent maintained that when he tried to believe in God he just couldn't. He tried to believe but failed.
Pascal's reply is what I particularly enjoyed in this little excerpt from history: Well, then you can't say that your unbelief is due to reason and intellect. Your unbelief is not rational at all. It is completely reasonable to seek out God and attempt to find him. Being content with unbelief is intellectually foolish. Don't claim that your unbelief is due to your superior intellect. On the contrary it is your own prejudices, lusts, and other sins that are preventing you from doing what is rational -- seeking out and believing in God.
"The fool has said in his heart that there is no God." -- Psalm 14:1
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